UPDATED 2/9/26 1:38PM: To include note of Perron’s entry into the 3rd Hampden race. 

The blue and red; the 2nd and the 3rd. (created from official and Google search images)

While Republicans field challengers to Democratic statewide officeholders and even hold a competitive gubernatorial primary, they face an uncomfortable reality. The turn against the party nationally is likely to leave Massachusetts’s elections well out of reach for the GOP’s statewide hopefuls. Down ballot however, there are a few races that pass the laugh test for competitiveness.

Longmeadow Rep Brian Ashe, a Democrat, and Southwick Rep Nicholas Boldyga, a Republican, have drawn challengers from the opposite party this year. Many factors militate against their opponents Monson Select Board chair Peter Warren and Agawam City Councilor Thomas Hendrickson respectively. However, the partisan bent is not the only factor in these districts.

Of the 20 House districts based in the four western counties of Massachusetts, Republicans currently hold three. Only a handful of the 16 Democratic seats are remotely competitive.

Susannah Whipps, an independent ex-Republican, holds the 413’s 20^th seat, the 2^nd Franklin. Republican Nicole Gough, a Phillipston Select Board member, has created a campaign committee to challenge Whipps. (The district runs from Greenfield into towns along the northern end of Worcester County.)

The 2^nd Hampden, which Ashe has held since 2008, is among the few Democratic seats that straddles the line between safely Democratic and competitive. Of the region’s Republican seats, the Westfield-centric 4^th Hampden is a true swing seat. The other two, including the 3^rd Hampden, which Boldyga represents, favor Republicans.

“I’m running because we deserve an economy and a state government that work for all of us,” Hendrickson said in a January 23 release announcing his campaign.  “Too often, billionaires and big corporations are able to rig the economy in their favor, keeping wages down and costs high for everyday people.”

Warren, who organized a campaign committee last year, has not appeared to make a public statement about his bid. However, he has a website up and has raised nearly $10,000, about a third of which he gave himself.

Both Ashe and Boldyga have beaten challengers before. Their advantages stem in part from geography. Their hometowns have become anchors in their districts. Another factor has been how Springfield’s suburbs along the Connecticut border have swapped political preferences over the years.

The 2^nd Hampden district includes Hampden, Longmeadow, most of East Longmeadow and Monson and two precincts in Springfield.

The 2nd Hampden runs from Longmeadow to Monson, but most of the population is on its west end. (via malegislature.gov)

“With out terms only two years log, I try to always be prepared for a challenger,” Ashe said in a text.

He added that there was still some time to go before ballot papers are available and returned. Whether he has a challenger, or not, Ashe continued, “I will continue to do my job, representing the good people of the 2^nd Hampden District.”

Longmeadow had been moving toward Democrats for years. Since the 2016 election, East Longmeadow has been following, more than overcoming the reddening Monson has experienced. When Ashe first took office, he had two precincts in Springfield. They dropped out after the 2010 census only for him to gain two precincts in the city again after 2020. Those slices of Springfield only magnify the advantages the incumbent has generally.

Warren did not respond to a request for comment as of posting time.

The 3^rd Hampden includes Blandford, Chester, Granville, Huntington, Middlefield, Montgomery, Russell, Tolland and 7/8 of Agawam.

The 3rd Hampden (in lime green) runs from the Berkshires to the Connecticut River. (goldenrod). (via Mass. Legislature)

Boldyga did not respond to a request for comment on Hendrickson’s challenge.

While Ashe’s district has been trending left, Boldyga’s has only gotten redder with time. Ever since his election in 2010, Agawam and Southwick have only gotten more Republican. The addition of towns in the foothills of the Berkshires after 2020 have only deepened the 3^rd Hampden’s taste for Republicans.

Anthony Russo, a prominent figure in the bricklayers union and Hendrickson’s colleague on the Council, struggled to get traction against Boldyga in 2022. Despite deep roots in Agawam, he lost his hometown to Boldyga in the 2022 election.

Nevertheless, Hendrickson is leaning into an inequality argument and pitching single-payer health care, holding utilities accountable and workers’ rights.

“I’m fighting to bring real working class representation to our state legislature, to challenge corporate special interests, to create a fair economy for working class families, and to restore transparency and democratic values to our state government,” Hendrickson said in his release.

Another complication may be the presence of an independent challenger. On February 9, after this post was originally published, Southwick Select Board member Jason Perron announced in The Westfield News that he would run without any party affiliation. Were he to fracture Boldyga’s base in Southwick, the race could become more competitive.

Despite these countervailing forces, the challengers are more credible than general election challengers in other Western Mass districts might be. If Hendrickson or Warren have records in their nonpartisan municipal offices, they might be able to urge voters to look beyond party.

Still, 2026 is shaping up to be a Democratic year. That could hurt Warren as he looks for votes west of his community. Perhaps more importantly, Longmeadow voters of all political stripes may balk at the idea of somebody other than a fellow resident being their rep. Warren will need to run up the score in Hampden and Monson and convince East Longmeadow to revert to its historical Republican nature.

Hendrickson (or even Perron) could benefit from the backlash against Republicans that appears to be building. However, that will only go so far. The place it seems most plausible is in his own city. Nevertheless, he will have to vastly overperform the Democratic ticket and his predecessors to finally unseat Boldyga.