Healey, in sum: The State of the Commonwealth is strong, but that guy down there… (WMP&I)

BOSTON—Upon saying the most predictable line in her state of the Commonwealth address on January 22—it is “strong”—Governor Maura Healey went a bit off-script.

“You knew I was going to say that,” she said, almost cheekily. “Every governor does, but I want you to know I believe it.”

It was not the only diversion from her remarks as prepared for delivery. However, the speech overall was part of a choreographed troika of events that signal the shift into reelection mode. Two days before, her campaign launched her campaign formally with a video. The following week, on January 28, she filed her budget.

Depending on how one counts, Thursday’s announcement of actions to blunt the feds’ immigrant purge was either a fourth part or a manifestation of her intention to protect Massachusetts from Donald Trump. This broader promise featured in both her reelection video and her State of the Commonwealth.

“I’m proud to be your governor because of who we are in Massachusetts. We work hard. We look after each other,” Healey says in her launch video.

As images of the chaos and destruction emanating from Washington flash across the screen, she pivots.  “But these are tough times and Donald Trump is making everything worse. So many people are struggling to just get by.”

Healey does have a record to run for reelection on, to the extent that she will face a Republican with any hope of winning. However, highlighting what Trump is doing to Massachusetts and the nation solves a few political issues for Healey as she moves toward November.

Three Republicans are vying for their party’s gubernatorial nomination. Whoever wins will face long odds as Healey remains popular. Moreover, the national environment is turning harshly against Republicans everywhere, let alone in deep blue Massachusetts.

The budget provided an opportunity to focus on things like education, transportation and housing. Healey’s annual spending proposal also shows how she proposes to blunt some federal cuts. For example, she is proposing more funds to shore up the huge gap arising from Trump slashing Medicaid. However, the legislature will take that and do what it wishes. By contrast, the state of the Commonwealth will stand as an extension and expansion of her announcement video.

Republicans in Congress slashed $1 trillion from healthcare to pay for tax cuts for the rich. (WMP&I)

In the speech, Healey trashed Trump’s cuts to vital programs and his tariffs, which she blamed for rising prices. She touted the Commonwealth’s pushback on what Trump’s health secretary, Robert Kennedy, Jr., is doing to vaccines.

Trump’s actions also gave Healey an opportunity to lean into the Commonwealth’s generosity. She pointed to residents rallying to support one another when food stamps faced suspension during last year’s government shutdown.

“When Donald Trump froze SNAP benefits, taking food away from children and seniors, boy did Massachusetts show up,” Healey said. “We raised $7 million for food pantries. People and businesses stepped up.”

The riff on Trump’s tariffs also let Healey transition to her efforts to address affordability.

This is not the first time Trump has transformed Healey’s political career mid-term. His first election elevated Healey into one of Trump’s principal antagonists in court. Indeed, it came to define her, making her an unassailable favorite to run for governor once Charlie Baker stood down.

Given Baker’s eternally buoyant approval ratings and Scott Brown’s victory over Martha Coakley still scarring Massachusetts Democrats over a decade later, it was not a surprise she ran a careful campaign.

Some of Healey’s critics on her left suggest Baker, or at least Bakerism never went away. She could have run further away from his legacy, but the situation is far from the status quo. (created from image via Bay State banner)

Some of the governor’s critics on the left argue she ran—and has governed—essentially as Baker-lite. Meanwhile, the Republicans running for the right to lose to her in November—to say nothing of moneyed interests backing devastating tax cut ballot questions—act like the Commonwealth caught fire and sunk into Cape Cod Bay shortly after Baker left the bridge.

The truth is a bit more complex.

While Baker did not consider government the root of all evil, he starved agencies while lacking the courage to actually reduce their obligations. The result was deteriorating services. The poster child for this was the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, which all but collapsed under him. While its decline had many authors, his focus on appearances over substance poured gasoline on the train car fire.

Healey brought a vibe shift. Her approach in personnel and priorities suggested a New Deal Democrat ethos. It helped that the Commonwealth had the money—without raising taxes on most residents—to rebuild a crumbling civil service and revive Boston’s moribund transit system.

Of course, she could have gone further to build back the state, withered by recessions and penny-pinching. Critics are not wrong to say that Healey has taken an accommodationist approach to business. Many in that crowd love the Commonwealth’s livability but bristle at the idea of paying for it. She pushed tax cuts, some of which favored the wealthy or at least look ill-timed given the rocky revenue ride Healey and her Administration & Finance Secretary Matthew Gorzkowicz have had.

Whether playing ball like this was the right approach is an open question. Business-backed groups like the Pioneer Institute and High Technology Council have decided to stab Healey in the back by proposing a ballot question that would suck $5 billion in revenue out the Commonwealth’s Treasury. The governor has declined to take a position on it.

Healey’s record does offer reasons to smile. But there is a lot more to do. (WMP&I)

Beyond a willingness to make government work, there are other accomplishments, including new investments in community college, local road repair and state infrastructure. The Boston Globe found claims in her video to be largely correct. Had Kamala Harris won the election in 2024, Healey would still have something to run on. More to the point, it is unlikely that the GOP could summon the second coming of Charlie Baker or Bill Weld if the national environment did not favor Dems.

If Healey could stand for reelection as more than Baker-lite, why the Trump focus? It will not work for everything. After her State of the Commonwealth, Healey received criticism for not laying out how she would counter immigration officials. A week later, she announced policy changes and legislation alongside Senate President Karen Spilka and advocates.

However, pushing back on him helps clear the runway to land her next term. With so many factions within the Massachusetts Democratic party, nothing unites them quite like Trump—especially Trump in his current form. His first term had less concrete harm. The immigration purge was less severe. Central economic pillars like health and research did not face the same threats.

Obviously, nobody should count the votes before they are cast. Still, the better bet is Healey will enter next year with her capital replenished. The question is what she will do with it.