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Despite Pretensions, a Foul Musk Likely Won’t Waft into 1st District Dem Primaries…

Richard Neal

Dems Re Musk Threats to Intervene in Primaries: Lol, LMAO even. (still via C-Span)

After House Republicans tanked a year-end deal at the orders of Donald Trump and his ostensible boss, Elon Musk, Democrats took the floor to blast GOP subservience. Among those excoriating the other side was Congressman Richard Neal, who emphasized that a bipartisan agreement fell apart because of social media posts.

“We reached an agreement,” an atypically fiery Neal said. “We came to modest achievements and a tweet changed all of it.”

This drew the attention of Musk. On the website formerly known Twitter, Musk responded to a prominent troll that had posted video of Neal’s speech. Musk said he would be “funding moderate candidates in heavily Democrat districts, so that the country can get rid of those who don’t represent them.”

From the context, Musk clearly included Neal, to whom Musk attached a tired epithet.

A spending bill did pass in the end. However, it did not include Trump’s late demand for a debt ceiling increase or even abolition. While many Democrats would gladly banish the debt ceiling, Neal, among others, noted that Trump just did not want to deal with the debt ceiling while trying to pass his tax cut.

This was not Musk’s first threat against Democrats in districts as safely Democratic as Neal’s. Tumescent from his successful quarter billion investment in Trump, Musk is traipsing into political territory that is plainly alien to him.

Moreover, unlike Republicans, Democrats are not cowering but rather taunting the billionaire and his hubris.

After Musk assured Florida Representative Maxwell Frost would lose reelection, the Gen Z Congressman replied with a Florida candidate form.

“Here’s the candidate form for your run against me. The people of Central Florida don’t really like corrupt rich guys though,” Frost posted on social media.

Like Neal’s 1st District in Massachusetts, Frost’s 10th District in Florida is overwhelmingly Democratic.

Massachusetts’s 1st Congressional district covers Berkshire and Hampden counties, the western fringes of Franklin and Hampshire counties and the southwestern edge of Worcester County.

If Neal has any concern about Musk’s threat, he is not showing it. A spokesperson for him did not respond to a request for comment. However, the Ways & Means Committee Democrats reposted Musk’s post with an Internet meme that mocked his attempt to intervene in Democratic elections.

For his part, Neal told Politico he was similarly unconcerned about primaries.

“Everyone knows I’m always ready,” he said.

History and the data suggest he has no reason to worry. Neal’s closest primary challenge came 32 years ago. In 1992, only in his sophomore term and his district overhauled by redistricting, he faced Charles Platten and Springfield City Councilor Kateri Walsh. He prevailed ahead of second place Walsh by nearly 14 points. Still, his challengers held him under 50%.

Incidentally, that year, Neal received 53% of the general election vote, his lowest in his congressional career. However, his opponent, then-Springfield City Councilor Anthony Ravosa, only got 31% thanks to a third-party candidate. Neal’s closest general election came in 2010 when he won by 15 points.

As the district became more Democratic after the 2010 Census, swinging west to take in the Berkshires, primaries became the more prominent threat. Not surprisingly, primary challenges have always come from Neal’s left.

Richard Neal

Neal’s opponents on the left have tried to turn his time as Ways & Means chair against him. It didn’t work. A hit from the right would fare even worse. (via YouTube/Ways & Means Cmte)

Musk’s missive was more hilarious than scary as his primary challengers have consistently bashed Neal for being too centrist and too close to big business while slowing or impeding progressive priorities like single-payer healthcare and the transition to green energy. (Neal has not hidden his skepticism of single-payer, but he has highlighted labor support and his votes for green investments).

Nearly all of Neal’s primary opponents since 2010 have echoed these charges. The one exception may be Andrea Nuciforo, a former Pittsfield State Senator, whose 2012 pitch had a regional inflection, too.

Broadly speaking, Neal’s district is heavily Democratic but not ideologically rigid. Highlighting his role as the top Democrat on the Ways & Means Committee has resonated with some voters. Neal himself has moved somewhat left on some social issues, following the center of the party—and perhaps the district itself.

For example, Hampden County is easily the most conservative of the four counties Neal’s district includes. In the 2018 referendum to add gender identity to state anti-discrimination law, the question passed with over 60% of the vote in Hampden County, only seven points behind the statewide result.

Most critically, Neal takes challengers seriously. While the size, tone and tenor of his campaigns vary, the 18-term congressman does not brush off opposition. With his biggest risk being in primaries, he runs visible campaigns on-air and on the ground against fellow Democrats challenging him.

Neal aired comparatively few ads to counter the campaign of Nadia Milleron this year. Although consumer safety was her animating issue—her daughter died in a Boeing crash—Milleron ran distinctly to Neal’s left. She had funding for ads, but running as anything other than a Democrat was a problem in the general. Neal crushed her.

By contrast, Neal spent millions in the 2020 Democratic primary against then-Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse. While most observers do not believe the race was ever close—and it ultimately was not—Neal took the race seriously from the beginning.

This is consistent with other Democratic primary challenges in the last few cycles nationally. Nearly all successful Democratic primary challengers from the right and left either caught their opponents napping or exploited the incumbent’s weak or undeveloped political networks in their districts.

Outside money was definitely a factor. However, that money only went to districts where it was obvious the incumbent had problems. Intermittent challenges, as Neal has faced, may indicate some discontent, but they probably fortified him against serious challengers.

These are things that Musk does not understand. Alternatively, he is dressing up cow excrement as confidence until proven otherwise. Odds are that he will not actually fund any such Democratic challengers. Perhaps the “President Musk” headlines will eventually bother Trump so much that he excommunicates Musk.

Either way, Dems are obviously not afraid of Musk meddling in their party.

Republicans are another matter, which Neal mentioned in his remarks noting the implications for the separation of powers.

“Can you imagine what the next two years are going to be like if every time the Congress works its will there’s a tweet from an individual who has no official portfolio who threatens members on the Republican side with a primary and they succumb?” Neal asked rhetorically.

 

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